Mădălin ROȘU (rmadalin.rosu@gmail.com)
The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Abstract
The paper describes the basic principles for modelling the Romanian earthquake, its limitations and characteristics. The content of the paper implies the validation of individual components in the model starting with the exposure and its processing. The below data show possible ways to measure the hazard connected with the given peril and how effectively the hazard is reflected by which model. It describes the vulnerability curves of each analysed model and how they adapt to two insurers in Romania – used as EXAMPLE business.
The analysis takes into consideration the Partial Internal Model (PIM) and three external models: AIR, IF and RMS. Also, it emphasises the impact of compulsory insurance PAD within the portfolio of the Example Insurers.
The validation tests show that the Impact Forecasting model (IF) is the best choice of the external available models for the Romanian insurance market or at least for the two Example Insurers which portfolios were analysed.
Keywords: seismic hazard, natural peril, earthquake, exposure, portfolio analysis
