Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD (actincon@yahoo.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies / „Artifex” University of Bucharest
Prof. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE PhD (gabriela.anghelache@gmail.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Assoc. Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL PhD (madalinagabriela_anghel@yahoo.com)
„Artifex” University of Bucharest
Gabriel-Ștefan DUMBRAVĂ PhD Student (stefan.dumbrava@gmail.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Oana-Ana-Maria SIMA Master Student
Abstract
Numeroase studii empirice au aratat ca fluxurile comerciale urmeaza principiile fizicii referitoare la gravitatie: doua forte opuse determina nivelul comertului bilateral intre tari, nivelul activitatii economice si a venitului, pe de o parte si totalitatea barierelor aflate in calea derularii comertului, pe de alta parte. Acestea din urma includ: costurile cu transportul, politici comerciale prohibitive, nesiguranta exportatorilor si importatorilor privind evolutia diferitelor conditii de desfasurare a comertului cum ar fi evolutia cursului valutar, diferentele culturale, existenta frontierelor nationale, diversitatea preferintelor consumatorilor precum si diverse alte impedimente. Analiza efectuată de autori evidențiază faptul că modelul gravitațional asigură posibilitatea analizei comerțului internațional. Ecuațiile de tip gravitațional au câteva caracteristici care asigură posibilitatea efectuării studiilor empirice fiind o ecuație bilaterală. Cu toate ca modelul gravitational a avut, inca de la inceputurile utilizarii lui, un succes empiric care putea fi cu dificultate contestat, acest model a avut totusi parte, o perioada de timp, si de critici care vizau lipsa unei fundamentari teoretice. Din acel moment a fost din ce in ce mai mult acceptat faptul ca ecuatia gravitationala poate fi extrasa pornind de la anumite ipoteze din modele teoretice, cum ar fi modele ricardiene, modele de tip Heckscher-Ohlin sau modele de scara apartinand Noi teorii a comertului international. Aceste trei tipuri de modele difera in esenta prin modul in care este realizata specializarea produselor de catre diferite tari.
Keywords: comerț internațional, regionalizare, import, export, curs valutar, model gravitațional, modelul interlink.
Classification JEL: C50, F13, F40
THE GRAVITATIONAL MODEL USED IN THE ECONOMIC ANALYZES
Abstract
Numerous empirical studies have shown that trade flows follow the principles of gravity-related physics: two opposing forces determine the level of bilateral trade between countries, the level of economic activity and income, on the one hand, and all the barriers to trade, on the other. The latter include: transport costs, prohibitive trade policies, insecurity of exporters and importers about the evolution of various trade conditions such as the evolution of the exchange rate, cultural differences, the existence of national borders, the diversity of consumer preferences and various other impediments. The authors’ analysis highlights the fact that the gravitational model ensures the possibility of international trade analysis. Gravitational equations have several characteristics that make it possible to carry out empirical studies being a bilateral equation. Although the gravitational model had, since the beginning of its use, an empirical success that could be challenged with difficulty, this model had, however, for some time, also criticism regarding the lack of a theoretical substantiation. From that moment on, it has been increasingly accepted that the gravitational equation can be extracted from certain hypotheses from theoretical models such as ricardian models, Heckscher-Ohlin models or scale models belonging to New Theories of International Trade. These three types of models differ in essence by the way in which product specialization is made by different countries.
Keywords: international trade, regionalization, import, export, exchange rate, gravity model, interlink model.
JEL Classification: C50, F13, F40
