Stefan Johnson
Department of Demography and Geodemography, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague
ABSTRACT
This study examines the temporal evolution of financial inclusion across Romania’s 42 counties from 2011 to 2021, analyzing regional disparities through a multidimensional lens. Using the Mahalanobis Distance-Based Financial Inclusion Index (IFIMd), the Second Demographic Transition Behavioral Index (SDT1), and hierarchical clustering, this research assess the relationship between financial access, demographic changes, and socioeconomic factors. Our findings reveal persistent inequalities, with GDP, pensioner-to-elderly ratio, and physician-to-adult population ratio emerging as key predictors of financial inclusion at the panel level. NUTS3-specificanalyses underscore the influence of urbanization and aging populations, with Bucharest consistently exhibiting the highest inclusion levels. Linear regression out-performs Holt’s exponential smoothing in forecasting financial inclusion trends, capturing linear growth patterns. These insights highlight the need for targeted policy interventions to bridge regional financial inclusion gaps and foster equitable economic participation. By providing the first subnational application of SDT1 alongside the first application of IFIMd longitudinally, this research advances understanding of financial inclusion dynamics in post-socialist contexts and informs strategies for addressing regional disparities.
Keywords: Financial Inclusion; Economic Demography; Romania; NUTS3; Demographic Change
JEL: R, J
