Prof. Dr. Tudorel Andrei (andreitudorel@yahoo.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Lecturer PhD Andreea Mirică (miricaandreea89@gmail.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Assistant Lecturer, PhD Ionela-Roxana Petcu (roxana.glavan10@yahoo.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
PhD. Candidate Adina Andreea Neamțu (chiotoroiu.adina18@gmail.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
Abstract
Modelling Consumer Price Index as strategy for inflation targeting is of significance in the existing global context. Moreover, in the current economic state, identifying seasonal patterns and modelling short term time series becomes essential in building a sustainable economy. The paper analyses a dataset on fuel prices, made available by National Institute of Statistics Romania with values from 2001 to 2022. Promising results on the seasonally adjusted series are obtained by employing the X13 package in JDemetra+ 2.2.3. The results show that the series has been log-transformed and no calendar effects are present. Moreover, seasonality tests show that the residuals are not affected by seasonality. The plot of the series components reveals a strong irregular component.
Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Romania, JDemetra+ 2.2.3, seasonal adjustment, fuel
JEL Classification: C10
