Determining the Business Cycle of Turkey

Muhammed Fatih Tüzen, Phd (
Turkish Statistical Institute, Ankara, Turkey
Fatma Aydan Kocacan Nuray (
Turkish Statistical Institute, Ankara, Turkey
İlayda Kuru (
Turkish Statistical Institute, Ankara, Turkey


In this study, it is aimed to examine the basic characteristics of the cyclical fluctuations in the Turkish economy and to determine the business cycles (contraction and expansion). By using the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm, the turning points in the business cycles were obtained. In order to determine the business cycle, Turkey’s monthly Industrial Production Index, monthly and quarterly Gross Domestic Product data were examined and analyzed. As a result of the analysis, the average business cycle for the Turkish economy was calculated as 5 years. It has been observed that this result is compatible with the related studies in the literature and the cycle characteristics of developing countries. Peak and trough points were obtained with the algorithm named “Harding-Pagan (Quarterly Bry-Boschan) Business Cycle Dating Procedure” in the BCDating R package released in 2019.
Keywords: business cycle, Bry-Boschan procedure, economic crises, Tramo-Seats, temporal disaggregation, national accounts, industrial production
JEL codes: C22, E32 and P44

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Romanian Statistical Review 1/2022