Analysis of the link between tax revenue and macrofinancial indicators, and identification of the determinants of tax revenue in the case of Romania

Victor Ogneru, Phd Student (
Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Stelian Stancu, Phd (
Bucharest University of Economic Studies


In this article we use econometric methods to identify and analyze the causal links between budget revenue collected in Romania and various economic variables, including macrofinancial variables. The data set used consists of quarterly frequency values for the 2000 quarter 1 – 2019 quarter 4. The methods used in the analysis are simple and multiple linear regression, the Granger causality test and simple and multiple nonlinear regression models. The results obtained show that the economic variables, as a whole, explain only a quarter of the variation of the share of tax revenue in GDP.

Keywords: revenue, taxation, financial indicators, investments, econometric modeling
JEL codes: H20 and C51

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Romanian Statistical Review 4/2021