Statistical Model for Prediction of Future Trend in Hypertensive Disease in Adult Poplation of Romania

Oana-Florentina Gheorghe-Fronea
Carol Davila”University of Medicine and Pharmacy,
Bogdan Dorobantu (
Carol Davila”University of Medicine and Pharmacy,
Corina Ilinca
Faculty of Sociology and Social Work, University of Bucharest,
Stefania Matei
Division of Social Sciences, Research Institute of the University of Bucharest,
Marian Preda
Faculty of Sociology and Social Work, University of Bucharest,
Maria Dorobantu
Carol Davila”University of Medicine and Pharmacy


Purpose: The present study aims to analyse the past and future trend in HT’s prevalence, awarness, treatment and control in adult Romanian population using statistical models based on the results of the three national-representative surveys.
Methodology: using the data from the three national-representative surveys: SEPHAR I, II and III conducted between 2005 and 2016, by means of Simple exponential smoothing and Brown linear smoothing analysis using IBM SPSS 20.0 software we evaluated the past in future trend (up to year 2020) of hypertension’s prevalence, awareness, treatment and control in our adult population.
Main findings: The evolution of HT’s prevalence is characterized by significant oscillations in the analysed period (2005-2016) and in 2020, is estimated to be 44%. Awareness of hypertension followed a steady trend of growth from 2005 to 2016. If in 2005 the percentage of hypertensive aware of their condition was 44.3%, in 2016 their percentage reached 80.9%, being expected to increase up to 96.2 % in 2020. The percentage of treated hypertensives increased to 59.2% in 2012 and 75.2% in 2016, and is expected to reach 91.2% in 2020 unless there are major events at the level of risk factor changes. In 2005, BP control rate was 19.9%, percentage which rose to 30.8% in 2016 and is expected to increase up to 36.6% by year 2020.
Conclusions: Based on the results of our study, in Romania, hypertension’s prevalence has increased in the last 11 years and will continue on an upward trend, if no preventive strategies at population level will be implemented in the near future. Although being on a positive trend for HT’s awareness, treatment and control, hypertension management will remain suboptimal in Romania in the future, if all the influencing conditions remain, on average, similar to previous years, leading to a continuous up-ward trend in cardiovascular mortality in our country.

Keywords: statistical model, prediction, trend, hypertension, national, representative

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Romanian Statistical Review 3/2018