The Econometric Model for the Economic and Financial Analysis of Romanian International Trade

Prof. Mario G.R. Pagliacci PhD.
Unversita degli studi di Perugia, Italy
Prof. Constantin Anghelache PhD.
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, “Artifex”University of Bucharest
Prof. Alexandru Manole PhD.
Assoc. prof. Mădălina Gabriela Anghel PhD.
“Artifex”University of Bucharest


This paper describes the evolutions of the international trade of Romania during the recent period. The authors rely on official statistical data, drawn from the publications of the National Institute of Statistics and the results are presented using graphs of proper structure. The data are analyzed depending on the Combined Nomenclature, as reference for grouping statistic data.

These elements are usually encountered in the case of countries of low level as development. On an annual basis, the foreign trade activity has developed slowly from the point of view of the volume, which is negative as well as considering both components, import and export. The evolution of imports and exports has been stimulated also by the slight appreciations of the national currency.

At the same time, the positive element of currency appreciation implies a negative effect on the exports. Along with the effects of the economic and financial crisis, another element which has generated a slower rhythm evolution for imports and exports consists of the fact that the process of privatization and restructuring, involved the closure of a number of companies. Those data were analyzed and interpreted, based on a system of indicators which reflects the evolutions and perspectives of economic international exchanges. Also, we focused on the structure of the foreign trade, having in mind the geographic space, goods and services structure, structure of partners and volume of imports and exports of the same goods or from/to same country. As methodology, we used econometric and statistical methods and models, adapted based on the data series. In order to cover many aspects of the international trade, we provided out some data, from different periods and, after analysis, we took out some pertinent conclusions. The analysis was performed from the economic and financial viewpoints. On the other hand, the analyses of international trade were made in connection with the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product. The data on GDP were considered for the same period, and all data are deflated.

Key words: export, nomenclature, import, sector, results
JEL classification: C14, C25, F14, F17, F47

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Romanian Statistical Review 3/2016