A Time Series Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Births in Romania in the period 2008-2013

Ph.D. Candidate Marușa Beca (marusa.beca@cig.ase.ro)
Professor Ileana Nișulescu-Ashrafzadeh (nisulescu_ileana@yahoo.com)
Bucharest University of Economic Studies


In this article, we studied the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the observed corporate births for the Romanian economy through the Autoregressive Distributed Lags Model (ADL). We performed a time series analysis that uses monthly data for the period January 2008 – December 2013 in order to establish the impact of the fiscal and monetary policy adopted by the Romanian government in times of economic crisis on the firms’ demography. The corporate birth rate is an endogenous variable in a linear function model with five exogenous macroeconomic variables such as the CPI, the loans ratio to GDP, the FDI, the long term interest rate, tax rate to GDP and the lags of the dependent variable. The main finding is that the variance of the corporate birth rate variable is negatively correlated with the variances of CPI in the current month and the interest rate two months lagged. We also determined that the variance of the dependent variable was positively correlated with the variances of the loans rate two months lagged, tax rate four months ago and FDI two months lagged and FDI in the current period.
JEL Classification: G33, E31, E32, E42, E52, E62

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Romanian Statistical Review 2/2015