Kondratiev type cyclicality of the Romanian economy, grounded in three key statistical indicators: GDP, CPI or CLI and debt

PhD Senior lecturer Gheorghe Săvoiu
PhD Senior lecturer Constantin Manea 

University of Pitesti


The evolution of the economies is certainly cyclical, and the “K” type waves, or type Kondratiev cycles, represent a perennial piece of evidence of this. Relatively criticized by many economic theories, with the ignorance typical of all those who try to disprove forecasts and projections in the field of business, and at the same time highly appreciated by those who prove a validated predictive power (which is the case of the Austrian school of economics), Kondratiev cycles, currently in their fifth stage, are the main target of the presnet paper. The introductory section is a reflection, simultaneously critical and appreciative, on cyclicality, while the arguments have a strong technological emphasis. To be credible and pragmatic, the applied method section has recourse to three favourite tools: gross domestic product (GDP) price consumer index (PCI) or cost of living index (CLI), and debt (public or external), paying due tribute to the constructors and international harmonizers, in point of statistics and instruments (from Nicholas Georgescu Roengen to Victor Axenciuc), who initiated and, respectively, completed a genuine epistemological process of the long cycle in modern Romanian economy, which this article presents, recognizing the quality of a supercycle to the Kondratiev cycle. The logic and useful nature of cyclical thinking, and its major importance today, conferred by the contribution of the Austrian school of economics, are included at the end of this article, generating a series of concluding remarks in a double perspective: that of an essay or statistical description, and and no less a ritical analysis of the Kondratiev type cyclicity of the national economy.

[Full Text]

Romanian Statistical Review 1/2014